Backseat Blonde - How Many Fans Does NASCAR Really Have?

December 6, 2004

Fun with Numbers –
How Many Fans Does NASCAR Really Have?
By Allison Wagda

6.4 Billion – The number of people on Earth
294 Million – The number of People living in the US
and…
75 Million – The purported number of NASCAR fans

It’s an impressive statistic. 75 million people. Picture all
those people in one location at any given time.

No wonder Nextel paid reportedly upwards of $700 million to be the title sponsor for
the next decade. That’s a whole lotta ring tones.

But more and more, I wonder…are there really that many fans?

To be fair, NASCAR has statistical research backing up its claim (an Ipsos Reid
NASCAR Brand Review in 2001). I have no clue what methodology was used to
classify a fan, nor do I know how the numbers were gathered.

But those in glass houses should never throw stones, and in my own analysis, all I
have is the power of deductive reasoning combined with a little common sense. So
what I’m saying is…this column is merely food for thought. Fun with numbers, so to
speak.

What is a fan?
In order to come up with any reasonable estimation of the number of NASCAR fans,
you must first decide exactly who fits this vague category. If you counted the number
of people worldwide who have heard of NASCAR, I’m sure it far exceeds 75 million.
But how many of those could name a driver, any driver, past or present? How many
could name a current driver other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Jeff Gordon? How many
have ever watched a race from start to finish? Or watched one this year? Or ever
attended a race?

Most people are somewhat familiar with NASCAR. The series - like most major
sports - gets headlines nationwide, maybe picks up 30 seconds on the evening
news, and boasts broadcast coverage on major television networks. It’s hard to
miss, even if one is less than enamored of auto racing. I have several friends who
could name Tony Stewart, but would never call themselves a fan. I even dragged one
friend to a race a couple of years ago, and while she had a great time, she wouldn’t
call herself a fan today. She just wouldn’t make fun of it.

So I do not count as fans people who have a little bit of knowledge of the sport due to
inadvertent exposure.

A fan, especially one counted in demographics used to sell sponsorships, must
actually watch the sport, at least occasionally, and have some microscopic amount
of interest in it (not be merely in the room, or watching because someone else is
hogging the remote).

The fans, by my reckoning...
There are minimalist fans who might retreat to the den to “watch the race” if the
mother-in-law is visiting and football season is still a few weeks away.

There are casual fans who may watch with some regularity but won’t reschedule a
major event to make the race.

Then, there are the hard core fanatics, who call the drivers by their number, proudly
wear t-shirts saying Long Live the Rock, the ones who camp, hate cookie cutters,
and read Jayski even in the off-season (yeah, you!).

These three groups should make up the fan base. To me, it’s even generous, since I
don’t really think someone who watches a race a year is a fan.

The numbers don’t lie…but they are open to interpretation
The 2004 Daytona 500 had 33.5 million viewers in the U.S. In addition to the national
broadcast here in the states, NASCAR also claims to broadcast in over 130
countries worldwide. Based upon that one race, the 75 million fans stat seems like a
realistic representation.

Not so fast. Are you a golf fan because you watched the Masters? I usually watch at
least one or two World Series games, but I’m sure as heck not a baseball “fan.” I
used to be a football fan, but I don’t care how much you are supposed to stick with
your team through thick and thin, the only way I’ll ever root for the 49ers again is if
John York sells the team. And without the Niners, I could care less about the rest of
the sport. Call me a fair-weather fan if you must, or simply recognize that fans may be
loyal but they aren’t sheep.

(NASCAR should take note of this as many fans continue to feel disenfranchised and
alienated by all the recent changes.)

The domestic Daytona 500 ratings are encouraging for NASCAR, especially since it
was the second highest rated Daytona 500 ever. But to try to boil own the true
number of NASCAR fans, we need to review some of the regular season numbers.

FOX reported a 3% drop in average ratings for the first half of the season.

NBC, during NASCAR’s much-hyped new 10-race Chase for the Championship,
showed a 12% ratings increase with an average of 7.3 million viewers per race. So,
for the season, the results were mixed, but the momentum is on NASCAR’s side.

Headlines over the past week have trumpeted the fact that the season finale at
Homestead saw a 38% ratings increase over last year, crediting the excitement
generated by the Chase (the manufactured ending is a likely reason, given last
year’s snoozer since Matt Kenseth had already wrapped up the title).

However, with 9.9 million viewers, the final race at Homestead was not much, if any,
better than several other popular races throughout the season. The Aaron’s 499 at
Talladega Superspeedway in April snagged 10.1 million viewers, the Labor Day race
at Fontana drew 9.8 million viewers, and the Spring race at Atlanta had close to 8.5
million viewers. Interesting perspective when considering the finale hype.

Other races were less popular with fans. At various times during the season,
NASCAR was bested by the NBA, Major League Baseball, SpongeBob, and the WWE
The Nextel All-Star Challenge, a race touted as for the fans, was only seen by about
4.8 million viewers. Both the May race at Richmond and the MBNA America 400 at
Dover in September (the second Chase race) had just about 5 million people tune
in. The first Chase race and champion Kurt Busch’s sole Chase victory, the Siemens
300 at New Hampshire, was seen by about 6.8 million people.

Taking all of these numbers together, I think it’s safe to say NASCAR has around 4
million dedicated, die-hard fans in the U.S. Probably another 7-8 million passive fans
who watch often but not every single week. On top of that, maybe there are around 3-
4 million occasional fans who tune in a few times a year, and another 1-2 million
who, in addition to watching the Daytona 500, also occasionally stop for a few
minutes while channel surfing and may claim to be a fan to friends.

The rest of the Daytona 500 viewers are, in my opinion, too uninterested in the entire
season to truly be called fans.

So, to be as absolutely kind as possible to NASCAR, I believe the sport has around
18 million fans (people who meet some sort of minimum standard) here in the U.S.

That’s pretty good, but nowhere near the 75 million mark, leaving me somewhat
befuddled as to how that number was reached.

Oh, but there is still the international markets to consider. NASCAR’s TV ratings only
reveal viewership trends here in the States. They don’t include markets like Canada
and Australia where the sport also boasts a strong fan base, or any one of the
additional countries where NASCAR claims to broadcast.

Without any actual race data, this gets tricky. So, using what information I have
already gleaned from the U.S. data, I’m going to make some pretty sweeping
generalizations and, well, guess. A lot.

A total of 18 million fans in the U.S represent approximately 5.6% of our total
population. Since NASCAR seems to be catching on in Canada in a big way, I’ll add
5.6% of their 31.9 million population (1.8 million) into the mix.

Several other countries have undoubtedly been exposed to NASCAR and the sport
may be catching on, so I’m going to add in 1% of the total population of Brazil,
Mexico, Australia and Japan. I suspect that fewer than 1 out of 100 people in any one
of those countries are actually a fan, but in the spirit of giving NASCAR the benefit of
the doubt I am attempting to be optimistic with these guesstimates. (added to the
total – 4.4 million).

There are other countries where NASCAR races are shown, but I have no way of
verifying how often they are broadcast, if they are on live or tape-delay, or how
prevalent TV’s are in some regions. So, for these countries, with a total combined
population of close to 1.5 billion people, I’m going to add .2% to our total (2.9
million). That’s essentially saying that 1 in 500 residents is a NASCAR fan.

And beyond that, the rare NASCAR fan can probably be found in the rest of the world,
even where races are not shown. Can’t leave them out, right? The rest of the world
population, minus those already accounted for, is around 4.1 billion people. I’ll add
to our total .01%, or one in 10,000 people, as NASCAR fans (4.1 million).

And the best, most optimistic total I could come up with?

US - 18 million
Canada – 1.8 million
Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Japan – 4.4 million
Rest of broadcast region – 2.9 million
Rest of world – 4.2 million

Approximately 31.3 million total NASCAR fans on Earth.

Well, there you have it. In my infinite wisdom and mathematical brilliance, I have
single handedly solved the mystery of the 75 million fan claim. Or at least added my
own dose of reality.

Regardless, NEXTEL seems happy, and have recently reported a few numbers of
their own to justify their investment in NASCAR to shareholders. According to Nextel
CEO Tim Donahue, NASCAR fans use their Nextel phones an average of 42% more
(minute-burn rate) than other subscribers, resulting in higher revenues from our
market segment (about 20% higher). And they’ve also sold over 40,000 Nextel-
branded phones, and he claims the sponsorship has resulted in sales of “hundreds
of thousands” of new phones.

So perhaps it doesn’t really matter, as long as we all keep buying.

But that’s a topic for next week.

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